NCAA Tournament Picks

Posted March 18 2008 9:57PM by Michael

With the NCAA Tournament upon us, I have decided to record my picks for posterity on this site. Linked here is a pdf version of my yahoo bracket (which is the same as all of my brackets, it just is the only site that let me save to a pdf).I started writing out a complete reasoning for every game, but quickly got bored, so I'll just comment on some of the teams/matchups:

EAST REGIONAL

UNC doesn't even get challenged until the Elite Eight, they completely outclass everyone up until Tennessee. They will run all of the previous teams out of the gym, and if a team tries to slow down the game, Hansbrough will eat them alive.
I think the only thing on Eric Gordon's mind is the NBA draft, so I look for him to do a lot of 1 on 1, 3 point bombing, and shoot about 35% from the field in a loss that isn't very close.
As much as I would enjoy Notre Dame bowing out early, Washington St. seems like an even worse team. I would peg them as a great team to lose in round one, except for the fact that Winthrop's style of play is exactly the same as their own, and Washington St. has to be better than them, don't they?
Oklahoma looks primed for an upset. Anything related to Kelvin Sampson doesn't look to fare well in this bracket.
Don't know much about South Alabama, but I feel like Butler seems overrated. I assume South Alabama is athletic, and I think that overmatches Butler.
I can't say I know anything about Louisville, but I like Tennessee's style of play as a hard working defensive team that can score. They meet a wall in the Elite Eight as UNC wins a tight, high scoring contest where the final score doesn't tell the whole story.

MIDWEST REGIONAL

Kent St. will always be loved by me ever since they were my first big upset that I picked (2002 - Elite Eight), so they get the nod over UNLV.
Clemson impressed me against UNC and Duke, so they take down Villanova. Unfortunately, they meet one of my picks to click in Vanderbilt.
I really like Vanderbilt to do well, Shan Foster is a beast, and they have a big who can play. I have them taking down Kansas (an easy choice to lose easy every year) and making it to the Final Four.
I like Mayo over Beasley in the battle of Lottery Picks, but only based on USC's team. I don't really think Mayo will be the guy carrying USC. However, because of the teams they will play in my bracket, I have them in the Elite Eight.
I really think Wisconsin will not get far based on having to defend a team like USC, nor do I have much hope for Georgetown making it too far. Hibbert seems way too passive, I can't see him taking over any of these games.
Stephen Curry leads a red hot Davidson to a first round upset with an offensive explosion, but can't handle Georgetown all by himself

SOUTH REGIONAL

Oregon seems like a garbage team, so Mississippi St. wins that game by default.
I think Izzo outcoaches Dixon and takes down Pittsburgh to move into the Sweet Sixteen. Even though Pitt is hot, they always seem to bow out early in the tournament. Their style of play seems too physical, and MSU has a good history in the tournament lately (outside of the George Mason debacle).
Memphis strikes me as another top seed that could go down early due to style of play, but I don't think Michigan St. has the horses to do it.
Marquette has very solid guard play, and Kentucky has been having a pretty bad year (at least I think...apparently they made the tournament).
Miami seems like another team that, in my mind, shouldn't be here, so by default St. Mary's takes them down as they likely want to prove that they belong.
Stanford and Texas are the two teams I really like out of this bracket. I spent a decent amount of time struggling over who wins their matchup, a battle of Stanford's (recently on fire) twin towers vs Texas' athleticism and DJ Augustin. My heart says Stanford, but my reasoning says DJ Augustin is playing like an All American ready to carry a team on his shoulders, Texas has the interior defense to slow down the Lopez's, and the kicker: The game is in Houston.

WEST REGIONAL

UCLA is the cream of the crop. If healthy, they walk out of this regional without even trying. The question is whether Love and Mbah a Moute can play (well), which probably won't be decided until the Elite Eight (or whenever they play a real team). I figure by then those two will be rested up, or they will be living off adrenaline.
BYU over Texas A&M. I think TAMU has finished terribly, so I figure it will hang over into the tournament.
The next game I struggled with was Drake vs Western Kentucky. On one hand, I love a team of white guys who can light it up from deep. On the other hand, Western Kentucky brings a bona-fide NBA prospect in Lee. In the end, I don't think he can cary them.
I don't really like UConn, they seem to be led by a guy (Thabeet) who is worse on offense than Hibbert. While they win their first game based on talent, I think the outside game of Drake has a good chance to take down UConn by relying on being on fire from deep. If they are cold, UConn will probably roll with their interior defense. In the end, I just feel like Drake really has something to prove, and UConn is an underachiever.
Purdue is a team I really think will do well. Don't ask me why, but I could see their defense and hustle surprising teams. I can definitely see them getting relatively far as long as their freshmen don't suddenly start playing scared, and their intense defense doesn't get called for a ton of fouls early in games.
I think Georgia will get crushed. They used all their energy winning the SEC tournament, and will likely come out flat.
Arizona beats West Virginia based on talent, in my opinion. Even though Arizona is ice cold, I think they can shut down Alexander. If Budinger and Bayless (future Lottery Picks) can't get the W, they aren't as talented individually as I thought.
I think Duke once again will fizzle out when they play their first real team. I think it's a toss up whether Purdue will be that team, they do play very good defense and can force Duke into a lot of turnovers (which seems to kill them). Therefore, I will choose Purdue in hopes that Duke underachieves again.

FINAL FOUR

So my final four is UNC, Vanderbilt, Texas, and UCLA
Vanderbilt's run ends when they face UNC, and while Augustin can match up with Collison, the rest of UCLA (particularly their frontline) will outclass Texas
UCLA is more balanced than UNC, so as long as the UCLA frontline remains healthy, I think they can overcome Hansbrough to win it all. When forced to give a prediction as a tiebreaker, I through together a score of 75-70. Mostly because that was the score Illinois lost by.

My overall thoughts on these picks? I feel like I don't have enough upsets (outside of the Midwest Regional). I also don't have the special 5-12 upset this year, but none of the 12's seem to be very impressive, and I feel like the 5 seeds are better than the 4 seeds this year. I am very confident about Vanderbilt doing well, I just have a feeling about them. Similarly, I don't know why I feel that Purdue will do well, but I'm willing to take the risk on them continuing to play like veterans. I don't feel like I know very much about the field this year, it's harder to follow 300+ teams when your own team (Illinois) has the year it's been having.

Based on all these great thoughts and criteria, I expect my mom or Joyce to beat me. Again.

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